Semi-Markov Type Simulation Model for Studying the Reliability of TSN Devices When Operating in Railway Communication Networks

Relevance: TSN technology is a promising direction of the Ethernet standard actively developed by IEEE which allows Ethernet to be effectively used for reliable timely transmission of traffic of various types and varying degrees of delay criticality.

Purpose: development of a semi-Markov simulation model for studying the reliability of TSN devices which allows to flexibly estimate probabilistic reliability characteristics and their dynamical changes.

Methods: simulation modeling in Python programming language, methods of the theory of Markov and semi-Markov processes, methods of time series data processing.

Results: a semi-Markov model has been developed that allows considering complex implicit dependencies between past device states and current transition probabilities; a variant of the model's operation scenario has been developed that includes a set of various influencing factors, and it has also been shown that the proposed model provides a dynamic view of device reliability parameters changes that differs from the results obtained using traditional analytical approaches. In addition, the simulation results have been verified, the smoothing method has been chosen and its choice has been justified, and a very small deviation of the statistical results of the simulation model from the analytical ones has been shown.

Novelty: the novelty lies in the difference between classical methods and the proposed approach to estimating device reliability parameters based on statistical simulation, as well as in the creation of complex multifactorial scenarios of device behavior.

Practical significance: the results of the work show the possibility of using simulation modeling for forecasting reliability problems, dynamically accounting for complex processes of degradation and restoration of a device during operation and, thus, can be further used in estimating the reliability parameters of various telecommunications and other technical devices.

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